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The demand of "steady increase" of steel market in 2013 is better

In November 23rd, Cai Jin, vice president of China Federation of logistics and purchasing, pointed out that China's steel market demand will increase steadily in 2013. Stability is the foundation of the market next year. On the basis of stability, there are indeed some positive factors that can promote the growth of steel market demand. Mainly:

First, the development of domestic economy, since September, we have already had a consensus that the domestic economy began to "stabilize", which laid a good foundation for the growth of the demand for the future steel market.

Second, next year or even the next few years, our country will be in the focus of the release period of infrastructure projects. Since May this year, the national development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments have continuously approved infrastructure projects, which will create substantial demand for the steel market next year. Therefore, the centralized release of infrastructure projects will form a certain pulling force for the growth of China's steel market in the next few years. And the centralized release of infrastructure projects is also sustainable.

Third, 2013 is the year when the central government changes to various places. It will also be a period of centralization of new economic policies from central to local governments. The new economic policy tends to be more positive than the negative side, which is more obvious for the pulling effect of the steel market.

Fourth, although there are many uncertainties in the world, overall, the world economy is still recovering after the economic crisis in 2013. China's steel import and export trade is mainly neighboring countries and emerging economies. In 2013, the economies of these countries remained a relatively strong and sustainable growth trend. Therefore, the external demand of China's steel market in 2013 is still more optimistic. Cai Jin expects that China's steel exports will reach more than 55 million tons in 2013.

Cai Jin believes that the main theme or foundation of China's steel market in 2013 is "stability". There are many reasons for stability, or there are many factors that restrict the substantial growth of the steel market. There are two main reasons:

One is the external factor, which is the macro factor, mainly the inflationary pressure. Inflation is likely to rise in 2013, and inflation, the sword of Damour Chris, will make it difficult for the whole macro economy, including the steel market, to have such a brilliant growth in the past. In order to curb inflation, the whole economy needs stability, and stability is the first.

The other is the internal factor, that is, overcapacity. The problem of capacity is not a single policy, or a series of policies issued by a certain department can control it. From the point of view of production enterprises, private iron and steel enterprises now have a little profit, and they have no pressure to eliminate production capacity. The more difficult is state-owned steel enterprises, but under the current system, state-owned steel enterprises can not self eliminate. Therefore, eliminating backward production capacity is not something that can be controlled by the market itself. It has some institutional contradictions. Therefore, to speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, we must start from the system, we must have system innovation and management innovation. The problem of excess capacity will not be fundamentally solved at least until next year. This is also a heavy burden on our market.

It is clear that the two major contradictions must be grasped in the steel market situation next year. One is to see how much pressure is inflationary and the other is to see the extent of the release of capacity. With these two points in mind, we can grasp what level of demand for steel market will stabilize next year.

Cai Jin believes that entrepreneurs in the production and operation of the 2013 decision-making process of production and management of steel market demand in the "steady increase" is more stable, but also more objective.

We must grasp the "stable and favorable period" of China's economic growth.

At present, the market has reached a consensus that China's economy is beginning to stabilize, but many people only see the upside of the current economic growth. At present, the domestic economy reflects not only fast but also "good". This is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

First, the economic data in September and October and the upcoming series of data in November show that China's economic growth has begun to stabilize and rebound.

Two, the quality of China's economic growth is improving. One is the benefit, since September, especially since October, a considerable number of industry profits have changed from negative growth to positive growth, including the profit ring of the steel industry, which has also been increasing. This reflects the rising quality of China's economic growth. The other is employment. Since September, the employment situation in China has obviously improved. Employment is an important criterion to measure the quality of a country's economic growth.

Three. The structure is further optimized and improved. The improvement of the structure is mainly manifested in three aspects: one aspect is the change of the economic structure. The development of China's service industry this year is more robust. Better and faster development of the service sector reflects the transformation of China's economic structure to a better side. The second aspect is the change of industrial structure. From the point of view of manufacturing industry, especially the high and new technology industry, the growth rate is relatively stable this year. The main weakness is the raw material industry, including the steel industry. This change in industrial structure is expected by our industrial modernization. In the third area, great changes have taken place in the regional structure. At present, the northeast and western regions of China have developed rapidly. Although the growth rate of the eastern region is slow, it is still at a certain speed, and it is also developing to improve the quality of economic growth. The change of regional structure shows that the economic development is moving to the larger western region and the northeast region, including the central region, which is of decisive significance to our future economic development.

Four is the new driving force of China's economic growth. China's economic growth was slowing in 2012.