News Information

The price of steel in the fluctuating steel market is still low next year

2018-5-29
With the change of the environment, problems such as overcapacity accumulated in the iron and steel industry, joint insurance and mutual guarantee in circulation industry and repeated pledge have rapidly emerged. Closely followed by the loss of production enterprises, struggling for survival, trading companies are delisting, circulation industry to speed up the shuffle, the reservoir function weakened. According to incomplete statistics, about 30% steel trading enterprises in East China, especially in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, have withdrawn from the market.

The national development and Reform Commission data show that 1~8 month, the national steel industry realized profits of 82 billion yuan, down 53.4% over the same period last year. At the same time, due to institutional factors and so on, China's iron and steel overcapacity has become more and more controlled. According to statistics, China's crude steel production capacity exceeds 9 billion tons, and its output has increased by a small margin.

Entering the 2012, domestic crude steel output increased rapidly in anticipation and refreshed the historical record in April. The daily output reached 2 million 19 thousand tons, and the profit situation deteriorated and then rebounded until September. By the end of 9, the gross output of crude steel in China was 5.42 million tons, an increase of 1.7% over the same period last year, of which the output of key enterprises was 4.42 billion tons, down 1.5% from the same period last year. It is obvious that the increment of crude steel output this year is mainly from the non key steel enterprises, which is closely related to the overall profit of the small and medium steel plants and the private steel mills in the last two years. From the current production situation, the production of crude steel continues to rebound in October, and at the end of the year it will be slightly reduced by the seasonal impact. The annual gross steel output is expected to be 7.1 million tons, an increase of 3.95% over the 6.83 billion tons in 2011.

This year, steel exports were slightly better than expected at the beginning of the year. The total export volume in 1~9 months was 40 million 940 thousand tons, up 10.2% over the same period last year. Steel in the international economic situation is generally not ideal background, steel export growth of 10% is not easy, better than expected at the beginning. It is estimated that steel exports will exceed 50 million tons to 52 million tons throughout the year, an increase of about 6.3% compared with 2011.

The growth point of steel export mainly comes from pipe and alloy products, in which the total exportation of seamless tube and welded pipe increases by 11.8% and 11.2% in the first 9 months, and the increase of alloy rod and wire and profile is up to 70% and 80.9% respectively, and the alloy strip is slightly increased by 6.3% over the same period. It is obvious that alloy long plate is the main force of export increment, and the export tax rebate of many alloy products is the main reason for its increase.

Whether in construction or industry, the performance in 2012 was not ideal and was in a collective "muted" state. First of all, real estate investment has slowed down under the regulation, and the growth rate dropped to 15.1% at the end of 9. The investment in infrastructure has improved in the second half of the year, but the growth rate of investment in the whole year is down to about 20%, which is the lower level in recent years. Compared with the construction industry, the industry is even more bleak. In 1~9 months, the growth rate of industrial added value above the national scale is only about 10%, and the growth rate of construction machinery in the machinery industry has declined sharply. Compared with the previous two years, the lack of bright spots in the steel industry in 2012 led to a weak pattern of overall demand and became a key factor to curb the operation of the steel industry this year.

In 2012, domestic economic growth continued to decline. In the third quarter, GDP grew at a low level of 7.4%, a low point in recent years. The main use of steel industry is therefore collective "dumb", the growth of infrastructure and real estate investment growth slowed down synchronously, machinery, cars and household appliances and other manufacturing industries slumped sharply, in which the household electrical appliances industry has long gone against negative growth. At the same time, China's iron and steel production and production continued to increase, at the same time, the joint insurance in the steel circulation market, such as the surface of the surface, the East China area of warehouse, trader data sharp reduction, direct hit the whole industry confidence.

Throughout the year, the price of the steel market is lower than the beginning of the year. The average price of the varieties is generally down by 10%~15% compared with 2011. Judging from the main varieties, the overall performance of long timber is strong, and the cold rolled plates of plate products continue to run weak. As a link product between raw materials and finished products, billet performance is very eye-catching. It not only becomes a market vane, but also has large fluctuation and fast frequency. Steel factory is in high stock

As in previous years, domestic steel social inventories rose rapidly at the beginning of the year, and reached 19 million tons at the end of 2, a record high, and then entered the inventory stage. By the end of 10, the total stock of the 5 varieties was 12 million 430 thousand tons, which was 34.5% lower than that in the year, and significantly lower than that of the same period in 2010 and 2011, similar to the 12 million 20 thousand tons in the same period in 2009. As you can see, compared with the previous two years, this year, the circulation market has a large stock market, which leads to the root cause of this phenomenon is not the effective demand, but because of the joint insurance and mutual insurance, important pledge and so on in the steel circulation market. In some areas, many traders are withdrawing from the market. They are still operating businesses and are more cautious and take low inventory strategy.